Will there be political fallout from the first-ever gathering of the Conservative party now underway in Montreal?
The Progressive Canadian Party is certainly hoping so. That's the band of former Progressive Conservatives who refused to merge with the former Alliance party to form the new Conservative Party of Canada in late 2003.
They smell an opportunity in the first overnighter conducted by the Conservatives.
The die-hard group thinks there may soon be other former Progressive Conservatives growing uncomfortable with marriage to the Western-based Alliance, with its conservative social policies. And that might boost their political fortunes.
The former PC members adopted the tag "PC Party," and they claim a membership of about 500. The PCs fielded 16 candidates in the 2004 federal election, three of them in London ridings. None were elected.
The party, founded on disgruntlement, has a long way to go. But with new federal election rules, establishing and maintaining parties is much easier than in the past.
One of those PC candidates from 2004 is Derrall Bellaire, who ran in London-Fanshawe. He remains an organizer for the party in Southwestern Ontario and president of his riding association.
Bellaire says he and other PC Party members will be watching television coverage of the first Conservative party policy convention with great interest. They are optimistic trouble on the convention floor or clashes in the hotel corridors or reception suites may lead to disgruntlement among others who were with the Progressive Conservatives.
This is the first time members of the two founding parties have met face to face. The vote to merge was conducted by satellite link, and the vote that led to the election of Stephen Harper as leader was held in local ridings.
"At this point we have to be careful not to meddle and let things play themselves out," says Bellaire. "We are certainly keeping our doors open to anyone who would join us to put forward a decent alternative to the governing Liberals. That is where we are positioning ourselves."
At their convention, the 2,200 Conservative delegates will be dealing with about 100 proposed policies, including some on hot-button topics such as abortion, same-sex marriage and euthanasia.
The party leadership tried to defuse debate on moral issues by promising a free vote in the House of Commons for members of Parliament, but backed off when members criticized any attempt to stifle debate.
Pundits say how the party deals with those issues is crucial as it prepares for the next election.
If socially conservative positions are adopted and the Alliance flavour prevails, the Conservatives will have lost touch with mainstream Canada, which still favours the governing Liberals despite sponsorship and immigration scandals. But if the party heirarchy muffles debate, the Liberals will claim the Conservatives have a hidden agenda.
Harper has a daunting task to pull together the disparate elements of his party.
It's been likened to the job of trying to herd cats. "It's always a challenge in a Conservative party," he admitted as the gathering opened.
"If you don't have factions, you're not a Conservative party, that's what I say. Ultimately we're individuals, so we could have 2,000 factions here."
Already, MP Cheryl Gallant has caused Harper to want to pull out some of his neatly coiffed hair. She wrote a letter to her rural constituents in Ontario, accusing the governing Liberals of practising "Christianophobia."
It's a real balancing act for Harper and his party. The PC Party, among others, will be watching for any misstep.
Joe Hueglin of Niagara Falls is national co-ordinator of the PCs and he distributes his "daily digest" of news to more than 5,000 e-mail recipients.
He calls his readership that extends 10 times beyond party membership "silent watchers . . . people who listen to the players."
He's convinced discussion on moral issues may offend former Progressive Conservatives who tended to be far more progressive on social issues than Alliance and Reform supporters. If discussion is curtailed by the party leadership, the same group may be offended because the old Progressive Conservative party was one that rejected "top-down" direction in favour of the "grassroots."
Either way, Hueglin says, his Progressive Canadian Party stands to benefit.
"I would expect there are those who would look to us as an effective long-term alternative," he says.
Bellaire, Hueglin and others who are keeping the old Progressive Conservative dream alive have to be optimistic. Small parties are built on hope.
While they admit there has been no groundswell of support turning their way yet, things can always change.