OTTAWA -- And they're off. Former Canadian Alliance leader Stephen Harper puts the spurs today to what promises to be a frantic week of political jockeying when he officially launches his bid to lead the fledgling Conservative Party of Canada.
Former Tory leader Peter MacKay plans to make his leadership intentions known tomorrow and other potential contenders, including former Ontario health minister Tony Clement, auto-parts magnate Belinda Stronach and B.C. MP Chuck Strahl, are expected to speak out by week's end.
Calgary lawyer Jim Prentice has already announced he'll run for the crown, to be decided March 19-21.
"This is the pivotal week in terms of decision time for people who are either going to get in or not," Gord Haugh, a former aide to Clement, said in a refrain that was common over the weekend.
He expects Clement to make an announcement Wednesday or Thursday -- almost certainly to enter the race -- while Strahl said he considers the end of the week his "drop dead moment" for jumping in.
MacKay's decision has come down to personal rather than organizational issues, say insiders, but he'll announce one way or the other this week. Stronach, a multimillionaire CEO who has never run for office, remains a wild card.
So begins a 10-week sprint that will determine more than simply who sits in the big chair for the new federal party of the right, born out of a merger of the old Canadian Alliance and Progressive Conservatives.
The campaign will also help flesh out the party for curious Canadian voters. The new entity was cobbled together behind closed doors last fall, formally ratified only last month and has no policy platform or constitution.
"There's no glue yet holding this party together, so this race will define the new party -- and not just on policy but also on what kind of political culture it will have," Strahl said.
David Taras, a political scientist at the University of Calgary, said the new party "defies the laws of political gravity."
Without a common policy base, the leadership race becomes "a struggle for control between the Alliance and the old Tories. That's the story here. Do you split the difference or is it a naked takeover?"
And in Taras's opinion, "Harper symbolizes the naked takeover."
It's a frequently heard perception that could work for or against the race's acknowledged front-runner.
Harper, 44, enjoys deep and wide support within Alliance ranks for his leadership in restoring the party's credibility following the disastrous experiment with Stockwell Day. He helped engineer the merger without any of the self-inflicted wounds suffered by co-conspirator MacKay, and is believed to have widespread organizational and financial support.
Harper's campaign co-chairs are longtime PC activist Michael Fortier of Quebec and Alliance MP John Reynolds of B.C.
But Harper's powerful Alliance branding and his role in the merger talks may also open the door, especially in a large field, to an anybody-but-Harper push.
And while the voters' list will be locked in Feb. 29 when membership sales are cut off, Harper's advantage among the larger Alliance membership can be overstated.
The new leader will be determined based upon member votes in each of 301 federal ridings, with each riding worth 100 points. The points will be apportioned to candidates in proportion to their vote within each riding.
That leaves huge swaths of Eastern Canada wide open to persuasion. The Alliance party received only 300 mail-in ballots from Quebec members in its merger ratification vote, notes Jason Hatcher of the Prentice campaign team. The Tories had more than that number in Quebec delegates alone, let alone party members.
Strahl doesn't believe money and organizational salesmanship will necessary win the day. He doesn't believe candidates will sell another 100,000 memberships over the next seven weeks.
