WASHINGTON -- U.S. Democrats kick off the race for the presidential nomination today in Iowa, where polls have suggested a tight four-way contest. Results from the Iowa caucuses will provide an early picture of who may end up facing off against Republican President George W. Bush in the U.S. election Nov. 2.
It seemed for some time that reputed front-runner Howard Dean, a former Vermont governor, was closely battling Richard Gephardt, a longtime Missouri congressman, for the most Iowa votes.
But late polls pointed to a tight four-way finish, including senators John Kerry and John Edwards, after voters gather in precincts across the state.
It's just the start of a long list of state votes that ends in early June, but it's a significant barometer.
"I really think that the defining event will be the Iowa caucus," said political analyst Charles Cook, a leading authority on U.S. elections.
"That will sort of tell us whether Dean is likely to roll on and win the nomination or whether he's going to have a tough fight ahead."
If Dean, who's captured a lot of attention with his fiery antiwar crusade, wins Iowa, he's probably got a 90 per cent chance of capturing the nomination, said Cook.
After Iowa, there's a flurry of state votes leading up to the Democratic convention in July in Boston.
New Hampshire's vote, on Jan. 27, is another key signal of momentum, pundits say. It's important to do well there to continue attracting money and support for the rest of the race.
Retired army general Wesley Clark and Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman skipped campaigning in Iowa to focus on New Hampshire.
The other candidates are Ohio congressman Dennis Kucinich and social activist Rev. Al Sharpton.
It should be clear after March 2, when 11 states hold their votes, who will go up against Bush.
Iowa and five other rural states hold caucuses -- informal meetings between candidates and party members. The others hold primaries, more formal, state-level elections that aren't confined to party members and afford greater participation for voters.
The votes select the delegates who will go to the national convention to endorse a specific candidate.
Some analysts say that ultimately, the actual Democratic candidate may not matter as much as whether the U.S. economic recovery continues and if Iraq settles down, two key issues for Bush.
"When the economy is good and when there is no war, then issues like abortion or gay rights or the environment . . . have an opportunity to percolate, to come up to the top," said Cook.
"But when you've got big issues like war and peace, prosperity or economic turmoil, then those issues are going to dominate."
