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For U.S. skaters, dance is for the young of heart
Russia? Nope, but good guess.
France? Wrong again.
Try the United States.
Yes, skaters from a country where ice dancing ranks somewhere between curling and spelunking have had the world title locked up the past two years, with plenty of other young couples ready to take their place when they step off the podium.
But what exactly does the Americans' sudden and surprising success mean? With only eight senior couples competing at this week's U.S. Figure Skating Championships, can the current success at the lower levels carry over?
"This just takes so much time, it didn't happen all in one year," said Igor Shpilband, who, along with partner Elizabeth Coates, are the premier ice dancing coaches in the United States.
"It's a long-term process, but we're in the right direction," he said. "We're going to get there"
Added to the Olympics in 1976, ice dancing has been the street urchin of U.S. figure skating. Without the tricky lifts and difficult jumps, it lacks the power and danger of pairs skating. Except for Britain's Torvill and Dean, it's lacked the star quality of singles.
And, frankly, Americans have a hard time getting excited about a sport until the medals start piling up. The United States has never won an ice dancing title at the senior level, and it has exactly one Olympic medal, Colleen O'Connor and Jim Millns' bronze in 1976. Americans haven't finished in the top three at the senior world championships since 1985.
"Part of it is just where dance has gone to. (Early on), dance was the compulsory dances with stern free dances, and we were strong with that," said James Disbrow, president of the U.S. Figure Skating Association. "Recently, it's really been driven by the Russians, and we've been trying to catch up with that."
Slowly, the dance scene is improving. True, the number of senior couples this week is the fewest since 1973. And without five-time U.S. champions Elizabeth Punsalan and Jerod Swallow, the United States is a long shot even to finish in the top 10 at worlds.
But progress isn't going to come at the senior level, Shpilband said.
"As much as you hear, 'There's only eight couples competing as seniors and it's kind of depressing,' that's not how it looks to me," he said. "There are a lot of good young skaters.
"What I see in juniors nowadays is the couples improving from one year to another," he added. "In the first couple of years, I saw the teams moving up, but they still have the same quality. They're just getting bigger, stronger, skating faster, but they weren't getting any better. I see this changing and it's really pleasant to see. It shows we're moving in the right direction, obviously."
Jessica Joseph and Charlie Butler became the first U.S. team to win a world title last year at junior worlds. Though the two have split, another Shpilband-Coates team, Jamie Silverstein and Justin Pekarek, won the title this year.
Two other American couples finished in the top 15, including Emilie Nussear and Brandon Forsyth in their first season together.
"It's such a process," Coates said. "The novice dance (at nationals) is one of the strongest fields I think I've ever seen, and the junior level is very strong. Hopefully, the teams will stay together and will be able to develop and become high-level teams."
Unlike singles or even pairs, a dance team can't just be thrown together and succeed immediately. It takes time to build up the skaters' rhythm and unison.
"Dance is about communication and trust and friendship and love, and you can't build that in one year," Silverstein said.
It also takes time for judges to warm to the teams. Movement in ice dancing is glacial, with judges reserving the best marks for the couples they've seen and enjoyed for years. Unless a couple moves on or splits up, there will be little or no change in the rankings.
Take Punsalan and Swallow. Though they made great strides in their career, they could get no higher than sixth at the world championships.
But if the novice and junior teams can stay together, the United States should become a force in dance. It might not happen at the 2002 Olympics, Disbrow said, but 2006 looks promising.
"We're in very good shape compared to other countries," Shpilband said. "It'll be interesting to see if we continue to improve, continue to move up.
"We could have very good results," he added. "It's not going to happen all in one year, it's going to take time. But that's how it's built."